The Birth Pains of the Messiah:
Have They Started Yet?
Robert C. Newman
Biblical Theological Seminary
Hatfield, Pennsylvania
RCNewman@ibri.org
Abstract
The
concept of birth pains as a figure for eschatological troubles is
investigated
in the NT, OT and rabbinic literature, especially as this may relate to
Jesus= comment in Matthew 24:8.
Why is this figure of birth pains used?
Does it have any connection
with the phenomenology of birth contractions? Do
we have any biblical warrant for when these troubles
might begin? How do they function
as signs of the end? Is there any
reason from current disaster phenomena to think that the end is near?
As he
sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately,
saying, ATell us, when will these things be, and
what will
be the sign of your coming and of the close of the age?@ And
Jesus answered them, ASee that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, >I am the Christ,= and they will lead many astray. And you will hear of wars and rumors of
wars. See that you are not
alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.
For nation will rise against nation,
and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes
in
various places. All these are but
the beginning of the birth pains.@
(Matthew
24:3-8, ESV).
As Jesus sat on the
Mount of
Olives B having left the temple for the last time
before his
death B his disciples asked him when his predicted
destruction of the temple is to occur, and what would be the sign of
his return
and the close of the age. Jesus
begins his response with the words quoted above. He
predicts false Messiahs who will lead many astray, wars,
rumors of war, famines and earthquakes.
But these, he says are just the beginning of the birth pains.
What is this Abirth pains@
image? When do these pains
begin? Do we have any reason to
believe they may have already begun?
That is what we want to look at here.
Birth Pains in
the New
Testament
The picture of
birth pains as
a figure for some severe trial is rather common in the Bible. Besides the above passage and its
parallel in Mark (Mk 13:8), Paul uses a similar figure in 1
Thessalonians 5:3:
Now
concerning the times and seasons, brothers, you have no need to have
anything written
to you. For you yourselves are
fully aware that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the
night. While people are saying, AThere is peace and security,@ then sudden destruction will come upon
them as
labor pains come upon a pregnant woman, and they will not escape. (1 Thess 5:1-3).
Paul=s use of the figure seems to emphasize the
ideas that
birth pains come suddenly and are inescapable. All
three of these passages seem to be eschatological.
More puzzling is a
passage in
Revelation 12:
And a
great sign appeared in heaven: a woman, clothed with the sun, with the
moon
under her feet, and on her head a crown of twelve stars.
She was pregnant and was crying out in
birth pains and the agony of giving birth. (Rev 12:1-2).
In its context, the
woman
gives birth to a male child Awho is to rule
all the nations with a rod of iron,@
which would clearly seem to be Jesus.
If this refers to his literal birth, then the scene is set at
the first
coming, which is eschatological only in the sense that the whole
inter-advent
period, together with both comings, is eschatological.
However, these birth pains might
perhaps refer to Jewish recognition of Jesus as Messiah at the end of
the age. Something of this sort may be in
view
in the first two passages of the next section.
Last of all, we
have Paul=s quotation of Isaiah 54:1, in which he says
the
heavenly Jerusalem has no labor pains (but more children), in contrast
to her
rival, apparently the earthly Jerusalem.
Birth Pains in
the Old
Testament
PaulÕs
quotation reminds us
that the birth pain figure has a background in the Old Testament
Scriptures. In Isaiah 26, the
prophet says:
Like
a pregnant woman who writhes and cries out in her pangs when she is
near to
giving birth, so were we because of you, O LORD; we were
pregnant, we writhed, but we have given birth to wind.
We have accomplished no deliverance in
the earth, and the inhabitants of the world have not fallen. (Isa
26:17-18).
The context here
seems to be
eschatological, involving resurrection (v 19) and the Lord=s coming (v 21).
Similarly, Isaiah
66:
Before
she was in labor she gave birth; before the pain came upon her she
delivered a
son. Who has heard of such a
thing? Who has seen such things? Shall a land be born in one day?
Shall a nation be brought forth in one
moment? For as soon as Zion was in labor she brought forth her children. (Isa
66:7-8).
The context is
interesting. Verse 5 offers a
contrast between those who tremble at the Lord=s word and their Abrothers@
who don=t. Verse
6 sounds like a destruction of the temple and Jerusalem.
The rest of the chapter following our
passage sounds eschatological.
So does Isaiah 13:
Wail,
for the day of the LORD
is
near; as destruction from the Almighty it will come!
Therefore all hands will be feeble and every human heart
will melt. They will be dismayed:
pangs and agony will seize them; they will be in anguish like a woman
in
labor. They will look aghast at
one another; their faces will be aflame.
Behold, the day of the LORD comes, cruel, with wrath and fierce
anger, to make the land a
desolation and to destroy its sinners from it. (Isa
13:6-9).
Yet this passage,
for all its
eschatological elements B sun,
moon and stars darkened (v10), heavens and earth shaken (v 13) B seems to be a prediction of the Medes taking
Babylon
(vv 1, 17, 19), and so fulfilled long ago.
Psalm 48 has
something of
this same flavor. The kings of the
earth gather against Zion, but then retreat in fear:
As
soon as they saw it, they were astounded; they were in panic; they took
to
flight. Trembling took hold of
them there, anguish as of a woman in labor. By
the east wind you shattered the ships of Tarshish. (Ps
48:5-7).
Though this Zion is
the city
of God which he will establish forever (v 8), yet the reader is told to
look
over her fortifications carefully in order to tell about them to the
next
generation (vv 12-13). It doesn=t sound as though Zion will be standing much
longer!
In Isaiah 21, the
prophet is
seized with pain Alike the pangs of a woman in labor@ for the coming destruction of Babylon by the
Medes
and the Elamites, presumably a past event by our time, yet one verse in
the
context (v 9, Afallen, fallen is Babylon@) is applied in Rev 18:2 to a future event.
In the prophecies
of
Jeremiah, the figure of birth pains is used a number of times (4:31,
6:24,
13:21, 22:23, 48:41, and 49:24) for situations in which Israel or her
neighbors
will be overcome at the prospect of invasion. None
of these seem to be eschatological. Only
Jeremiah 30 seems to look beyond
the circumstances of the prophet=s
time:
Thus
says the LORD: We
have
heard a cry of panic, of terror, and no peace. Ask
now, and see, can a man bear a child? Why
then do I see every man with his
hands on his stomach like a woman in labor? Why
has every face turned pale? Alas! That day
is so great there is none like it; it is a time of distress for Jacob;
yet he
shall be saved out of it. (Jer 30:5-7).
Besides the
unprecedented
nature of this event (v 7), it will result in the return of Israel from
captivity, and the nation will no longer be under foreign oppressors
(vv 8-9).
Thus the figure of
birth
pains is used for the pain and anguish of humans at terrifying
circumstances
that have come upon them. The idea
that the circumstances are inescapable seems prominent.
That the circumstances have come
suddenly or unexpectedly is often possible, but less obvious.
Birth Pains of
the Messiah
in Rabbinic Literature
We might suppose
that Jesus,
in his Olivet Discourse, is doing no more than using a gripping Old
Testament
figure were it not for the fact that a very similar picture is used by
the
rabbis. The phrase Abirth pains of the Messiah@ occurs a number of times in the rabbinic
literature,
being cited as early as R. Eliezer (about AD 90). Since
it is unlikely that the Jewish leaders (opposed as
they were to Jesus) would knowingly adopt his terminology, it is
probable that
the phrase was already in use at Jesus=
time and has been preserved to us both in the New Testament and in some
of the
earliest rabbinic literature which survives. The
phrase as used by the rabbis does not refer to pains
that the Messiah would suffer, but to Athe
birth pains out of which the Messianic Age will be born.@
Some examples from
the
literature:
Mek Ex 16:29 (59a):
R
Eliezer (c90) said: If you observe the Sabbath, then you would be
protected
from three punishments, from the birth pains of the Messiah, from the
day of
Gog, and from the day of the Great Judgment.
Ket 111a: Abaye
(d 338/9)
stated: We have a tradition that Babel will not witness the birth pains
of the
Messiah.
Tanh 9a: God
has shown
mercy to Israel, that he led the ones with Jeconiah into the exile
before the
ones with Zedekiah, so that the oral Torah would not be forgotten by
them and
so that they would remain in Babel in their schools from that time
until
now. And over them has neither
Edom [Rome] nor Greece had authority, not has anyone threatened them
with
religious persecution. And even in
the days of the Messiah they will not see the birth pains of the
Messiah.
Shab 118a: R
Simeon b
Pazzi (c280) has said, R Joshua b Levi (c250) has said in the name of
Bar
Qappara (c220): Whoever has three meals on the Sabbath, he becomes
liable to
three punishments: to the birth pains of the Messiah, to the judgment
of
Gehinnom, and to the War of Gog and Magog.
Pes 118a: Why
do we say
the Hallel [Ps 113-118 at Passover meal]?
Because in it these five things are contained: the exodus from
Egypt [Ps
114:1], the dividing of the Sea [Ps 114:3], the giving of the Law [Ps
114:4],
the resurrection of the dead [Ps 116:9], and the birth pains of the
Messiah [Ps
115:1]: ANot to us, Yahweh, not to us, but to your
name give
glory.@
Sanh 98b: >Ulla said, Let him [Messiah] come, but let
me not
see him. Rabbah said likewise: Let
him come, but let me not see him.
R Joseph said: Let him come, and may I be worthy of sitting in
the
shadow of his ass=s saddle.
Abaye inquired of Rabbah: What is your reason [for not wishing
to see
him]? Shall we say, because of the
birth pains of the Messiah?
It is clear from
these
passages in the rabbinic literature that the rabbis expected difficult
times to
come just before the Messiah appears.
These times would be disastrous both for unfaithful Jews
and for the pagan
nations,
and even fearsome for the righteous.
When Do These
Birth Pains
Begin?
Jesus sketches the
nature of
the birth pains in the Matthew passage we quoted at the beginning of
this
paper: (1) false Messiahs, (2) wars and rumors of wars, (3) famines and
(4)
earthquakes. We should probably
not take this as an exhaustive list, since the following paragraph
lists
additional items and is linked to our paragraph by repeated references
to Athen@ and Athe end.@
Then
they will deliver you up to tribulation and put you to death, and you
will be
hated by all nations for my name=s sake. And
then many
will fall away and betray one another and hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and
lead many astray. And because
lawlessness will be increased, the love of many will grow cold. But the one who endures to the end will
be saved. And this gospel of the
kingdom will be proclaimed throughout the whole world as a testimony to
all
nations, and then the end will come. (Matt 24:9-14)
Taking the Athen@ which opens
this section to refer to the just-mentioned Abeginning
of birth pains,@ we may add several more items to our list:
(5)
persecution, (6) apostasy, (7) betrayal, (8) false prophets, (9)
increased
lawlessness, (10) weakened love, but (11) worldwide gospel proclamation.
When do these
things
begin? Well, there have been false
prophets and false Messiahs all through church history since the first
century. The same is true of wars,
famines, earthquakes, persecution, apostasy, and betrayal.
Lawlessness and love have seen their
ups and downs, but likewise wars, famines, earthquakes, and false
teachers have
come and gone over this whole period.
Yet the gospel has gradually spread until it has nearly covered
the
earth. From this survey it appears
that in some sense the birth pains began with the earthly ministry of
Jesus.
This seems to be
supported by
the rather similar picture given in Revelation 6 B the opening of the seven seals.
Though there is considerable disagreement about the identity of
the
rider on the first horse B is he Jesus, the Antichrist, or an
allegorical figure
for aggression? B any of
these three would match one of the items above: Jesus going forth =
spread of
gospel (11); Antichrist = false messiahs (1); Aggression = wars (2). The identity of the other horsemen are
less disputed: second horseman = wars (2); third horseman = famine (3);
and
fourth horseman = plague, death (either under persecution, 5, or adding
another
category, since war and famine usually produce death).
The fifth seal is obviously death due
to persecution (5), and the sixth seal is the eschatological darkening
of sun
and moon, and falling of stars, and a great earthquake.
In fact, the response of people on
earth at the time of the sixth seal closely resembles that in the
passages we
have looked at which compare human anguish to a woman giving birth.
So (returning to
our question
about when the birth pains begin), when are the seals of Revelation 6
broken? An important hint, it
seems to me, is given in Revelation chapter 5:
And I
saw a strong angel proclaiming with a loud voice, AWho is worthy to open the scroll and break
its
seals?@ And
no one in heaven or on earth or under the earth was able to open the
scroll or
to look into it, and I began to weep loudly because no one was found
worthy to
open the scroll or to look into it.
And one of the elders said to me, AWeep no more; behold the Lion of the tribe
of
Judah, the Root of David, has conquered, so that he can open the scroll
and its
seven seals.@ And between the throne and the four
living
creatures and among the elders I saw a Lamb standing as though it had
been
slain... (Rev 5:2-6)
Notice that the
narrative
suggests an interval of time during which no one is qualified to open
the
seals. If this is taken
realistically rather than merely dramatically, then John (in his
vision) is
present in heaven before Jesus has completed his atoning work. But when Jesus has finished, he is now
both the conquering Lion and the slain Lamb, and he is now qualified to
open
the seals. This suggests that
Jesus is qualified to open the seals as soon as he returns to heaven
from his
earthly ministry. Thus, unless a
long delay is assumed, it may well be that Jesus begins to open the
seals
immediately after his ascension.
If so, then it is not surprising that the whole church age is
characterized by the first five seals.
It seems to me that it is not until we reach the sixth seal that
we are
out of the beginning of the birth pains and are approaching the end of
the end.
But if the birth
pains began
in the first century AD, in what way do they function as signs of the
end? There are a couple of alternative
ways
we could go here.
One way would be to
say that
the birth pains do not function as signs of the end in the sense that
they mark
the end as about to happen, but only that they function as warnings
that
something is wrong with mankind and with nature, and that only God can
fix it,
which he will do in the end. In
this sense the birth pains are certainly signs of the end.
An alternative
approach would
be to see an additional feature implied in the picture of birth pains
coming
into play here. We have already
noted that birth pains are painful, inescapable, and sometimes
unexpected and
sudden. But beyond all this, birth
pains are also characterized by getting more severe and closer together
as the
time of birth approaches. Perhaps
this would be a fruitful concept to explore.
Is there any reason
to think
that the features mentioned by Jesus in Matt 24:3-8 and 9-14 will get
worse as
the end approaches? Will there be
more false Christs and false prophets B or
more believable ones B who will thus deceive more people than the
earlier
ones did? Yes, this is supported
by the narrative of the two beasts in Revelation 13 and by Paul=s description of the Man of Sin in 2
Thessalonians
2. In both passages we see nearly
universal devotion given to a final false Christ. And
Jesus in the Olivet Discourse emphasizes that there will
be numerous false Christs and false prophets at the end (Matt 24:23-28). These passages likewise suggest more
serious persecution, betrayal, apostasy, lawlessness, and weakened love
as the
end approaches. So too does 2
Timothy 3:
But
understand this, that in the last days there will come times of
difficulty. For people will be
lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient
to their
parents, ungrateful, unholy, heartless, unappeasable, slanderous,
without
self-control, brutal, not loving good, treacherous, reckless, swollen
with
conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having the
appearance of
godliness, but denying its power. (2 Tim 3:1-5).
So, of the items
listed in
Jesus= characterization of the birth pains that
precede his
return, we are to expect an increasing frequency and severity of many
of
these. What about wars, famines,
and earthquakes? The texts don=t tell us, but the sequence of seals, bowls
and
trumpets in Revelation is suggestive.
For it is clear that the plagues of seals, bowls and trumpets
become
more severe as we move from an earlier sequence to a later one. And there is also reason to believe
that these three sets are nested B
that the seventh seal consists of the seven trumpets, and the seventh
trumpet
of the seven bowls. If so, this
suggests that the disasters come thicker and faster as the end
approaches.
So, we propose that
the birth
pains of the Messiah begin with the church age and run to the second
coming,
becoming more severe and frequent as the end approaches.[4]
Are the Birth
Pains
Increasing?
This brings us to
the
application question. Do we see
any signs today that the items mentioned in the birth pain list are
currently
getting worse or closer together?
One reason for my examining this question occurred a few years
ago. I ran across an article in the
January
20, 1994 issue of USA Today
that
listed the ten most costly U.S. disasters up to that time:[5]
|
Most Costly U. S. Disasters to January 1994
|
|
Disaster
|
Year
|
Damages (1991-94 $$)
|
|
Los Angeles quake
|
1994
|
>30 billion
|
|
Hurricane Andrew
|
1992
|
30 billion
|
|
Midwest flooding
|
1993
|
12 billion
|
|
Hurricane Hugo
|
1989
|
5.9 billion
|
|
San Francisco Bay quake
|
1989
|
5.9 billion
|
|
San Francisco quake
|
1906
|
5.1 billion
|
|
Tropical Storm Agnes
|
1972
|
4.7 billion
|
|
Southeastern drought
|
1986
|
3 billion
|
|
Oakland, CA fire
|
1991
|
1.5 billion
|
|
Chicago fire
|
1871
|
1.5 billion
|
The thing that
struck me at
the time was that seven of these top ten disasters had happened in the
past ten
years! Notice that the cost of
each disaster was corrected for inflation. Even
allowing for the fact the U.S. is more affluent and
crowded now than it was earlier, it seemed to me that these statistics
still
indicate an increasing level of trouble in recent years.
And the USA Today
list did not include the savings and loan bailout nor
the AIDS epidemic. Was this
crowding of disasters into recent years merely a statistical fluke? Or was God telling us something?
After the terrorist attacks on the
World Trade Center and Pentagon this past year, I decided to take
another look at
the question.
I have not been
able to find
any nice single compilation of the disasters listed in Jesus= catalog of birth pains, not even for the U.S. There are quite a few disaster
websites. Many deal with particular
disasters. Some give only the
worst disasters in various categories.
I did locate a
listing of ABillion Dollar U. S. Weather Disasters
1980-2001.@ This web
page lists 49 items, the two most expensive being two droughts or heat
waves in
1988 and 1980. If we subtract out
rather diffuse Adisasters@
like these from the list, and try to compile an updated list of top ten
like
the earlier one in USA Today, here
is what we get:
|
Most Costly U. S. Disasters to 2001
|
|
Disaster
|
Year
|
Damages (1998 $$)
|
|
Los Angeles quake
|
1994
|
>33 billion
|
|
Hurricane Andrew
|
1992
|
32.4 billion
|
|
Midwest flooding
|
1993
|
23.1 billion
|
|
Hurricane Hugo
|
1989
|
9.9 billion
|
|
San Francisco Bay quake
|
1989
|
6.4 billion
|
|
Hurricane Floyd
|
1999
|
6.0 billion
|
|
Hurricane Georges
|
1998
|
5.9 billion
|
|
SE severe weather/flooding
|
1995
|
5.5-6.6 billion
|
|
San Francisco quake
|
1906
|
5.5 billion
|
|
Hurricane Alicia
|
1983
|
5.4 billion
|
With this updated
listing,
some new items come in and old ones drop off. But
it is again noteworthy that six of these ten disasters
occurred in these past ten years, and that nine of the ten have
occurred in the
past twenty years. This really
suggests an increasing tempo of disaster, at least for the United
States.
But here we are
just looking
at generic disasters (and in the U.S. at that), whereas the Olivet
Discourse
mentions rather specific problems (presumably world wide) in its list
of birth
pains. What can we make of these?
Looking back at our
list on
pages 4-5, we see the birth pains explicitly include:
- false
messiahs
- wars
and rumors of wars
- famines
- earthquakes
- persecution
- apostasy
- betrayal
- false
prophets
- increased
lawlessness
- weakened
love
- worldwide
spread of the Gospel.
This list can be
condensed
somewhat by combining similar categories:
- false
religions of a prophetic, messianic sort (1 and 8, above)
- wars
- famines
- earthquakes
- persecution
(5, 6 and 7)
- moral
decay (9 and 10)
- spread
of the Gospel
Let us examine each
of these
categories in turn.
False Religions
It is not
politically correct
to talk of false religions in the public sector these days. But Jesus, in speaking of false
messiahs and false prophets, was addressing his followers, not the
general
public. We will try to use the
categories we think Jesus would agree with.
There is an
abundance of
anecdotal testimony for the recent proliferation of false prophets and
messiahs.[8] Turning this into reliable statistics
to detect a trend is another matter, however. Any
database that attempts to catalog all messianic
claimants, all religions, all earthquakes, all famines, etc., is faced
by at
least two difficulties. The first
is that data is typically far more complete today (given the enormous
advances
in information technology) than it was even half a century ago. So we are more likely to have data for
recent events than for earlier ones, whether there is any actual
increase or
not. The other problem is that
such phenomena as we are concerned with become rarer as the phenomenon
is
larger. There are more small
religions than large ones, more local messiahs than those with an
international
reputation, more minor earthquakes than major ones, more mild famines
than
severe ones. It is hard to detect
and count the smaller events. Nevertheless, we will try to do what we
can with
what we have, keeping these caveats in mind.
The website www.adherents.com has data on
over 4200
religious groups throughout the world, many of which we would classify
as false
religions of a prophetic or messianic sort.[9] Unfortunately, the site does not
provide the sort of information that could help us see whether this
number is
actually increasing or not.
Lacking statistics,
one can
make a heuristic argument. Given
the increase of world population and the spread of Christian influence,
there
are surely more people in contact with Christianity today than earlier. Given similar percentages for positive
and negative responses (see our discussion under ÒSpread of the
Gospel,Ó
below), there would be more people rejecting Christianity, and thus now
open to
various messages that combine some attractive Christian ideas with
features
they find preferable to the BibleÕs more somber teachings. Thus it would not be unreasonable to
expect some proliferation of such religions. The
collapse of communist ideology in large parts of the
world has opened many to currents of religious thought that were
formerly kept
out. The mixing of East and West,
first world and third world, due to advances in communication, has also
provided a local diversity that was lacking only a few decades ago. Yet the spread of technology has not
banished supernatural worldviews, as the rise of the new age movement,
postmodernism, and Islam attests.
Even without good statistics, these factors suggest an increase
in false
prophets and false messiahs in the 19th and 20th
centuries.
Wars
Following the
pioneering work
of Lewis F. Richardson in the first half of the twentieth century,[10]
a number of attempts have been made to count and categorize wars.[11] Two helpful charts have been compiled
which are relevant to our question.
The first is a graph of conflicts per decade since 1400, still
under
construction by Peter Brecke of Georgia Tech.[12] Although the numbers in the earlier
part of this chart will certainly rise as Brecke includes information
from several
regions not yet compiled, he expects the dip in the 1700s to remain. The large peaks in the late 19th
and 20th centuries are currently conspicuous.
Conflicts per Decade 1400-2000
The second chart
was compiled
by Lewis Richardson[13]
and combines the severity of the war and its duration in a pictorial
view. The severity is indicated by the
warÕs
magnitude, given as the power of 10 of the number killed, so 3 means 103
killed (one thousand), 6 means 106 (one million), and so
forth. The
length of each war is indicated by a horizontal line running from the
year it
started to the year it ended.
RichardsonÕs compilation runs from just after 1800 to
1950.
Wars: Severity and Duration
1800-1950
Noteworthy in
RichardsonÕs
chart is the almost unbroken chain of war somewhere in the world
involving
deaths of the order of one thousand to ten thousand (magnitudes 3 and
4), and
the nearly continual occurrence of wars with deaths over one hundred
thousand
(magnitudes 5 and up) since the middle of the 1800s.
Most noteworthy is the first appearance of wars with death
tolls over ten million in the twentieth century.
By going back
looking for
major calamities of a conflict sort, Matthew White has composed a list
of
Ò(Possibly) The Fifteen Worst Things People Have Done to Each
Other.Ó[14] He warns us that this list is Òvery
incomplete,Ó but as I have found nothing better out there, here
it is:
(Possibly) The
Fifteen [sic] Worst Things
People Have Done
to Each Other
|
Death Toll
|
Cause
|
|
50 million
|
Second World
War (1937-45)
|
|
40 million
|
Mao Zedong
(1949-75)
|
|
40 million
|
Mongol
Conquests (13th century)
|
|
25 million
|
Manchu
Conquest (1616-44)
|
|
20 million
|
Taiping
Rebellion (1851-64)
|
|
20 million
|
Annihilation
of the American Indian (1492-1900)
|
|
20 million
|
Iosif Stalin
(1924-53)
|
|
19 million
|
Mideast Slave
Trade (650-present)
|
|
18 million
|
Atlantic
Slave Trade (1451-1870)
|
|
17 million
|
Timur Lenk
(1369-1405)
|
|
15 million
|
First World
War (1914-18)
|
|
9 million
|
Russian Civil
War (1917-22)
|
|
9 million
|
Thuggee (13th-19th
centuries)
|
|
8 million
|
Fall of Rome
(5th century)
|
|
7 million
|
Thirty Years
War (1618-48)
|
|
5 million
|
Congo Free
State (1886-1908)
|
|
5 million
|
Chinese Civil
War (1945-49)
|
You may have
noticed that
White has slipped 17 entries into his list of 15! In
any case, 6 of these occur in the 20th
century, and another laps over into it from the 19th. If we remove the four multi-century
atrocities from the list, half the rest occurred in the 20th
century.
Famines
The major famine
data I have
found so far is in one of the EM-DAT databases at the Centre for
Research on
the Epidemiology of Disasters at the UniversitŽ Catholique Louvain in
Belgium.[15] Though nominally this famine database
covers 1900-2000, in fact it is incomplete, and as yet lists no famines
before
1931. The two graphs below group
the famines in ten-year periods and present them as bar graphs, the
first
including all famines in the database for the period, the second just
famines
affecting more than one million people.
There certainly
appears to be
an increase in famines here.
Earthquakes
The National
Earthquake
Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey has two lists of
earthquakes
which have occurred since 1900, one listing earthquakes resulting in
more than
one thousand deaths,[16]
the other earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or larger. The earthquakes in
this
latter tabulation should be large enough that none have been missed
over that
time period.[17]
There does not seem
to be any
increase in earthquake number or severity over this period.[18]
Persecution
The second edition
of the World
Christian Encyclopedia provides
a
summary entitled ÒThe phenomenon of martyrdom.Ó[19] The total number of martyrs for the
Christian faith is estimated at 69.42 million from the beginning of
Christianity to A.D. 2000. No
statistics are given to divide up this total by centuries except to
indicate
that the number of martyrs in the 20th century was 45.4
million, of
which 13.3 million of these have died since 1950. Further,
the summary indicates the average annual rate of
martyrdom since 1950 as 278 thousand, with the current rate about 160
thousand. Thus we see a very large
jump in martyrs in the 20th century, amounting to over 65%
of the
total since the time of Christ.
Within the 20th
century, over two-thirds of the martyrs died before 1950, with lower
rates
since then. Still, the average
rate of martyrdom over the 19.6 centuries since the beginning works out
to 3.5
million per century (or for the 18.6 centuries up to 1900 as 0.75
million),
while the average for the whole 20th century is 45.4
million, over
ten times larger, and the average currently is 16 million per century,
still
over four times the twenty-century average.
Moral Decay
Probably crime
statistics are
the most objective way to measure this feature. Unfortunately,
the collection of worldwide crime statistics
is still in its infancy. The U.N.
Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention has now conducted five
crime and
justice surveys, in 1974, 1978, 1984, 1988, and 1994.
These results are reported in the 1999 Global Report on
Crime and Justice.[20] The summary of chapter two notes that,
ÒOn average, crime continued to rise in the 1990s, as it had in
the
1980s.Ó This is qualified by the
note, ÒMany countries showed a fall in crime in the
1990s.Ó[21] The following two charts indicate some
of these changes. In the first,
the median rate of intentional homicide for each of the five surveys is
given,
the number being the rate per 100 thousand population.[22] The developing and industrial nations
are compared.
The second chart
gives the
number of countries reporting an increase or decrease in the rate of
homicide,
rape and theft between the 1986 survey and the 1994 survey.[23]
From this latter
chart it is
clear why the report indicates that serious crime is up in the 1990s.
Spread of the Gospel
It is clear from the Bible that only a minority of people will be
saved by
GodÕs free offer of salvation, though many would argue that this
will become a
majority when children dying in infancy are taken into account. In any case, Jesus predicts Òthis
gospel of the kingdom will be proclaimed throughout the whole world as
a
testimony to all nations, and then the end will comeÓ (Matt
24:14). Though we are probably not to
understand this as a Òbirth pain,Ó the completion of this
task might very well
be seen as a sign of the end.
Where do things stand in this regard?
The second edition
of the World
Christian Encyclopedia
provides a
large spreadsheet listing numbers of adherents to the various world
religions
for 1900, 1970, 1990, 2000, and then provides extrapolations to 2025
and 2050.[24] In the chart below, we extract the
percentages of unevangelized persons, evangelized non-Christians, and
Christians for the four dates which are now past. By
Òevangelized non-Christians,Ó the authors mean those who
have heard the Gospel but have not accepted it.
It is clear that
the
twentieth century has decreased the fraction of people to whom the
Gospel has
never been proclaimed from over 50% to under 30%, even though the
fraction of
the world population that professes Christianity has remained about the
same
(actually decreasing slightly from 34.5% to 33.0%).
As a matter of
fact, the
Gospel is already available everywhere in the world via radio in the
major
languages of the world. Only a
small percentage cannot hear it proclaimed in some language they
understand,
though it may not be easy to assimilate due to cultural barriers of
various
sorts.
Discussion and Conclusions
We have now looked
at seven
items (condensed from a larger list) that might be considered the birth
pains
of the Messiah in Matthew chapter 24.
We suggest that these features characterize the period between
the
ascension and second coming of Jesus.
They certainly function as signs of the end in the sense that
they show
us the need for GodÕs intervention to rescue us from sin and its
effects. We also suggest there is good
warrant
from Scripture for expecting these features to become more severe and
more
frequent as the end arrives.
To the question
whether these
items are currently increasing in frequency or severity we have found a
mixed
answer. Probably the number of
false religions of a prophetic and messianic sort is increasing (and
the number
of their adherents), but as yet I have not found definite statistics to
prove
this. Wars have increased in
severity if not in frequency in the past two centuries, though as I
write no
major international war is in progress.
Famines seem clearly to have increased in recent decades. Earthquakes have not. Persecution
of Christians has certainly
been unprecedented in severity during the past century.
Moral decay, as measured by crime
statistics, has risen significantly in recent decades.
The Gospel has been spread in this past
century to the extent that the fraction of people who have been exposed
to the
message has risen from about 44% in 1900 to about 73% in 2000.
One could make a
case that -
beyond being in the end-times in the sense that these began with
JesusÕ
ascension - we are in the early stages of events leading up to
JesusÕ
return. There is still nearly 30%
of the worldÕs population that has not been exposed to the
Gospel, but this
could change rapidly with advancing technology. There
is still no sign of an increase in earthquakes despite
frequent claims to the contrary, but this could also change quickly. We must, as Jesus said, continue to
watch and pray.
References
. Hermann L. Strack and Paul Billerbeck, Kommentar
zum Neuen Testament aus Talmud und Midrasch
(Munich: C. H. Beck, 1922), 1:950, my translation.
.
Compiled from Strack and Billerbeck, 1:950 Where
the source was easily available, I have used a
standard English translation.
Otherwise, these are my own translations from the German.
.
I am inclined (with numerous commentators) to see the seventh seal as
including
the seven trumpets, and the seventh trumpet as including the seven
bowls. Thus the sixth seal may be right on
the
threshold of the end.
[4].
This is in agreement with the view of Anthony A. Hoekema, The Bible
and the
Future (Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1979), pp. 136, 150, 153,
157-8.
5. USA Today,
20 January 1994.
.
See Thomas S. Parris, ADisasters
On-Line,@ Environment 42, no. 4 (May 2000), reprinted on-line
at www.environment.harvard.edu.
.
Located on the website www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
8. e.g., Ronald Enroth, The Lure of the Cults
& New Religions (Downers
Grove,
IL: InterVarsity, 1987), pp.
41-42, 45, 53, 56, 110, 123.
[9].
The site features a number of items, including an index of religions by
name,
and a listing of the major religions of the world ranked by number of
adherents, plus some links to other sites.
10. Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly
Quarrels, Quincy Wright and C. C.
Lienau,
eds. (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and
Origins of War, Nicolas Rashevsky
and
Ernesto Trucco, eds. (Pittsburgh:
Boxwood Press, 1960).
13. Figure 4 in Hayes, ÒStatistics of Deadly
Quarrels,Ó p. 13
15. The CRED has databases for natural disasters
from 1900-2001, technological disasters for the same period, conflicts
from
1991-2000, as well as for famines from 1931-2000. See
their website at http://www.cred.be/emdat/intro.html.
19. David B. Barrett, George T. Kurian, and Todd M.
Johnson, eds., The World Christian Encyclopedia, 2nd ed., 2 vols. (Oxford: University Press, 2001), 1:11.
22. Global Report on Crime and Justice, p. 50.
23. Global Report on Crime and Justice, p. 52.
[24].
World Christian Encyclopedia,
1:4.