ECOLOGICALDISASTER:

                                             WHATDOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

 

Robert C. Newman

 

Introduction

 

            Onlya century ago, many Bible commentators, thinking the disasters in prophecyunrealistic, saw Jesus' description in Matt 24 as just the fall of Jerusalem inAD 70; strange locusts of Rev 9 as just Turks invading Europe; thought worldgetting better

            Sincethen, the 20th cen has brought us WWs 1 and 2, nuclear   weapons, some of the worsttotalitarian states in history, producing a more sober view of world situation

            In1979, Isaac Asimov's A Choice of Catastrophes published, listedabout 15 possible disasters (some far in future, some poss nearby), sorted into5 classes:

                        1stclass: universe becomes uninhabitable

                        2ndclass: solar system becomes uninhabitable

                        3rdclass: earth becomes uninhabitable

                        4thclass: human life is destroyed

                        5thclass: civilization is destroyed

            Wantto look at some disasters which are impending today, which are being takenseriously by scientists & politicians

 

Some Potential Disasters (statistics from World Almanac and Science News)

 

Nuclear War: none of superpowers wants it, but there ismore than enough armament to have a good one, and no surefire guarantee thatone couldn't start by accident; don't know what all of the effects would be;many killed by blast, many more by fallout of radiation; nuclear winterscenario being investigated; big problem coming up is that of nuclear proliferation:32 countries are using nuclear power (incl Cuba, Iran, Pakistan); others areexperimenting to develop nuclear weapons capability (Israel, Iraq at least,prob Libya); may get terrorist groups trying nuc blackmail soon

 

Ozone Depletion: life on earth protected from deadly UVradiation by layer of ozone (O3) in upper atmosphere; this is being depletedby several chemicals produced by mankind (various oxides of nitrogen andrefrigerant chemicals called CFCs); already getting "hole" in ozonelayer in polar regions during part of year; Antarctic hole in 1988 allowedtwice normal UV, think 1987 hole was much worse (4-5x normal UV); occurrence ofskin cancers has risen by 93% since 1980; may be due to increased UV

 

Greenhouse Effect: explain name; earth has always had abeneficial   greenhouse effect, tempabout 35o above that w/o effect; but now CO2 and othergases accumulating from modern technology (carbon dioxide up over 10% in 30years, nitrous oxide rising 2-3% per decade); not sure how much effect on tempthis has had yet, because many weather stations now more downtown than earlier;but in century of temperature records, six hottest years have occurred in1980s: 88, 87, 81=83, 80, 86; since 1880s, global land Ts up 1.2o F;if T trend of last 20 yrs continues for next 20, will have warmest weather inpast 100,000 years!  will warmpoles most, produce very dry weather in interior of continents, prob messing upagriculture; during coldest part of ice ages, ave T only 8o Fcolder; water frozen and stored in glaciers, so that  sea level then hundreds of feet lower; if all glacial ice todaymelted, sea level would rise several hundred feet more (I calc about 600 ft:Antarctica has area of 5.5 mill sq mi; whole earth 57.9; ave ice depth inAntarctic 2000 meters,  so almost200 m rise in sea level if all melted)   

 

AIDS: a viral infection that crashes human immunemachinery; first spread among homosexuals, perhaps coming from bestiality withmonkeys in Africa; now has moved into IV drug community, from which it canspread thru heterosexual intercourse and childbirth to broader population;cases thought to be heavily underreported in central Africa; in Feb 1988, 21countries reported over 200 cases each, US highest with 55K, GB 9th with 1.2K;a year later US cases had grown over 50% to 87K; in NYC, 60% of IV drug userstested were infected; app virus is transported in human white blood cells; RANDCorp estimates that AIDS hosp care in US over period 1986-91 will cost $37 billion

 

Earthquakes: no evidence that number or their forceincreasing at present; but subjective increase due to growing world population;if SF earthquake repeated today, far more loss of life and property

 

Pollution/Toxins: both growing technology and growing terrorist activity could producedisaster here; some items:  modernAmericans and Britons have 500-1000x more Pb in bones than Amerinds of 700-1300yrs ago; long-term, heavy alcohol use      damagesheart muscles in 1/3 drinkers, skeletal muscles in almost 1/2; dioxins (some ofmost powerful carcinogens known) app getting around in paper used in milkcartons & coffee filters; recent poisoned grape scare definitely linked toterrorism; earlier poisoned medicine scare certainly closely observed by them

 

Conclusions

 

These disasters have some real similarity to disasterspictured in Matthew 24 and Revelation: wars, famines, plagues, earthquakes, darkness,sun scorching people; might be the way God will bring these about

 

But Bible pictures a worse disaster ahead for those whocontinue to live as though God doesn't exist: Luke 13, parable of fruitless figtree in vineyard