Cornell University                                                                                          Dr.Robert C. Newman

September 13, 1991                                                                             BiblicalTheological Seminary

 

PROPHECY,PROBABILITY & GOD

 

Introduction

 

            Howdoes one attempt to decide whether God exists, and if so, which religion/bookis actually a revelation from Him?

            Herewe attempt a sketch of some of the evidence from fulfilled prophecy provided bythe Bible as part of the case for the truth of biblical Christianity.

 

Light to the Gentiles: Isaiah 42:6; 49:6

 

Isa 42:6 (NIV) I, the LORD, have called you inrighteousness; I will take hold of your hand. I will keep you and will make youto be a covenant for the people and a light for the Gentiles,

 

Isa 49:6 (NIV) he says: "It is too small a thing foryou to be my servant to restore the tribes of Jacob and bring back those ofIsrael I have kept. I will also make you a light for the Gentiles, that you maybring my salvation to the ends of the earth."

 

            Whatother Jewish person since Isaiah's time has founded a world religion?

 

Time of the Messiah: Daniel 9:25-26

 

Dan 9:25-26 (NIV) Know and understand this: From theissuing of the decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem until the Anointed One,the ruler, comes, there will be seven `sevens,' and sixty-two `sevens.' It willbe rebuilt with streets and a trench, but in times of trouble. 26 After thesixty-two `sevens,' the Anointed One will be cut off and will have nothing. Thepeople of the ruler who will come will destroy the city and the sanctuary. Theend will come like a flood: War will continue until the end, and desolationshave been decreed.

 

            Messiahto come after 69 "weeks" and to be "cut off."

            Startingpoint is "command to build Jerusalem"; according to Nehemiah 2, thisis 20th year of the Persian King Artaxerxes 1, to best modern knowledge is 445BC.

            Unitof measurement is "week," the 7-year sabbatical cycle.  The week including 445 BC is fall 449to fall 442.

            Jewishcounting convention is inclusive: unit including starting point is 1st unit, "after x units"means after xth unit has begun.

            Thusafter 7 + 62 weeks = AD 28-35.

            Jesus"cut off" by religious trial and Roman execution about AD 30.

            Contrastliberal interpretation, off by many years.

 


IsraelŐs Future: Hosea 3:4-5

 

Hosea 3:4-5 (NIV) For the Israelites will live many dayswithout king or prince, without sacrifice or sacred stones, without ephod oridol. 5 Afterward the Israelites will return and seek the LORD their God andDavid their king. They will come trembling to the LORD and to his blessings inthe last days.

 

            Sixunusual sociological features to characterize Israel for "many days."

            Anacted parable in marriage of Hosea and Gomer to picture relation of God andIsrael:  after she abandons Hosea,he is to buy her back for many days but have no relations with her.

            SoIsrael for many days to be without king/prince, sacrifice/sacred pillar,ephod/teraphim.

                        king/prince (government): Israel has had no kingsince 587 BC or AD 44; no "prince" from AD 70 to 1948.

                        sacrifice/sacredpillar (worship):  Israel has had no sacrifice since AD70, probably no pillar since c 500 BC.

                        ephod/teraphim (guidance):  Israel has had no priesthood since AD 70, no teraphim sincec 500 BC.

 

Twin Cities:

 

            Somethinglike use of controls in a scientific experiment; a number of "twincities" that are very similar, yet have rather different prophecies madeabout them; could not switch them and have equally good prediction.

 

Memphis/Thebes: Ezekiel 30:13; 14-16

 

Ezek 30:13-16 (NIV) This is what the Sovereign LORD says:"I will destroy the idols and put an end to the images in Memphis. Nolonger will there be a prince in Egypt, and I will spread fear throughout theland. 14 I will lay waste Upper Egypt, set fire to Zoan and inflict punishmenton Thebes. 15 I will pour out my wrath on Pelusium, the stronghold of Egypt,and cut off the hordes of Thebes. 16 I will set fire to Egypt; Pelusium willwrithe in agony. Thebes will be taken by storm; Memphis will be in constantdistress.

 

            Twoof Egypt's national capitals

                        destroyidols of Memphis vs cut off hordes of Thebes

            Memphisused as quarry for Cairo vs Thebes reduced to small villages

 

Tyre/Sidon: Ezekiel 26:3-14; 28:22-23

 

Ezek 26:3-14 (NIV) therefore this is what the SovereignLORD says: I am against you, O Tyre, and I will bring many nations against you,like the sea casting up its waves. 4 They will destroy the walls of Tyre andpull down her towers; I will scrape away her rubble and make her a bare rock. 5Out in the sea she will become a place to spread fishnets, for I have spoken, declaresthe Sovereign LORD. She will become plunder for the nations, 6 and hersettlements on the mainland will be ravaged by the sword. Then they will knowthat I am the LORD. 7 For this is what the Sovereign LORD says: From the northI am going to bring against Tyre Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon, king of kings,with horses and chariots, with horsemen and a great army. 8 He will ravage yoursettlements on the mainland with the sword; he will set up siege works againstyou, build a ramp up to your walls and raise his shields against you. 9 He willdirect the blows of his battering rams against your walls and demolish yourtowers with his weapons. 10 His horses will be so many that they will cover youwith dust. Your walls will tremble at the noise of the war horses, wagons andchariots when he enters your gates as men enter a city whose walls have beenbroken through. 11 The hoofs of his horses will trample all your streets; hewill kill your people with the sword, and your strong pillars will fall to the ground.12 They will plunder your wealth and loot your merchandise; they will breakdown your walls and demolish your fine houses and throw your stones, timber andrubble into the sea. 13 I will put an end to your noisy songs, and the music ofyour harps will be heard no more. 14 I will make you a bare rock, and you willbecome a place to spread fishnets. You will never be rebuilt, for I the LORDhave spoken, declares the Sovereign LORD.

 

Ezek 28:22-23 (NIV) and say: This is what the SovereignLORD says: "I am against you, O Sidon, and I will gain glory within you.They will know that I am the LORD, when I inflict punishment on her and showmyself holy within her. 23 I will send a plague upon her

and make blood flow in her streets. The slain will fallwithin her, with the sword against her on every side. Then they will know thatI am the LORD.

 

            Twomajor Phoenician city-state seaports

            ThrowTyre's rubble into sea, spread nets, never rebuilt

                        vswar & disaster for Sidon w/o statements re/ abandonment

            Tyreabandoned today vs Sidon still a major port

 

Babylon/Nineveh: Isa 13:20-22, Jer 51:26; Zeph 2:13-15

 

Isa 13:20-22 (NIV) She[Babylon] will never be inhabitedor lived in through all generations; no Arab will pitch his tent there, noshepherd will rest his flocks there. 21 But desert creatures will lie there,jackals will fill her houses; there the owls will dwell, and there the wildgoats will leap about. 22 Hyenas will howl in her strongholds, jackals in herluxurious palaces. Her time is at hand, and her days will not be prolonged.

 

Jer 51:26 (NIV) "No rock will be taken from you[Babylon]for a cornerstone, nor any stone for a foundation, for you will be desolateforever,"  declares the LORD.

 

Zeph 2:13 (NIV) He will stretch out his hand against thenorth and destroy Assyria, leaving Nineveh utterly desolate and dry as thedesert. 14 Flocks and herds will lie down there, creatures of every kind. Thedesert owl and the screech owl will roost on her columns. Their calls will echothrough the windows, rubble will be in the doorways, the beams of cedar will beexposed. 15 This is the carefree city [Nineveh]that lived in safety. She saidto herself, "I am, and there is none besides me." What a ruin she hasbecome, a lair for wild beasts! All who pass by her scoff

and shake their fists.

 

            Capitalcities of two major empires in 1st millennium BC

            Babylonto be deserted, no Arabs, no shepherds, wild animals dwell there vs desolate,place of sheep grazing.

            Bavoided by Arabs, soil too poor for grass, natives take brick but burn stonefor lime.

            Ninevehlong abandoned (tho now in suburbs of Mosul), name of largest mound Quyunyiqmeans "many sheep."

 

Capernaum/Nazareth: Matthew 11:20-24; see also Luke 4:14-30

 

Matt 11:20 (NIV) Then Jesus began to denounce the citiesin which most of his miracles had been performed, because they did not repent.21 "Woe to you, Korazin! Woe to you, Bethsaida! If the miracles that wereperformed in you had been performed in Tyre and Sidon, they would have repentedlong ago in sackcloth and ashes. 22 But I tell you, it will be more bearablefor Tyre and Sidon on the day of judgment than for you. 23 And you, Capernaum,will you be lifted up to the skies? No, you will go down to the depths. {[23]Greek Hades}If the miracles that were performed in you had been performed inSodom, it would have remained to this day. 24 But I tell you that it will bemore bearable for Sodom on the day of judgment than for you."

 

            Capernaumcursed with destruction for not repenting at Jesus' miracles; no such against Nazareth,even though they tried to kill Jesus.

            TodayC abandoned, recently discovered & excavated; N a prosperous city, muchlarger than in Jesus' time.

 

Probabilities:

 

Here we attempt to calculate probabilityof these things happening by accident; numbers need not be pressed, as thereare many more fulfilled prophecies of this sort (see bibliog.; Stoner makessuch calculations); compound probability = product of partial probabilitiesmultiplied together.

 

            Lightto Gentiles:  How many major world religions? 4 or 5.Antecendent chance that Jew would be founder of one of these, given Jews haveown religion?  Try fraction of Jewsin world population, c 1/100; p = 5(.01) = 5 x 10-2

 

            Timeof Messiah: Chance thisfounder cut off in 1st half 1st cen AD? Lives then, 1/50; cut off, 1/10; p = 2 x 10-3

 

            Israel'sFuture:  Given Israel's survival (which itselfis a fulfillment of other prophecies), many days w/o king, 1/2; w/o prince,1/10; w/o sacrifice, 1/10; w/o ephod, 1/10; w/o pillar, 1/2; w/o teraphim, 1/2;p = 1/8000 = 1.5 x 10-4

 

            TwinCities:  Memphis/Thebes: images cease, 1/10;depopulated, 1/2; total: 1/20; Tyre/Sidon: many nations, 1/5; scrape debris,1/5; throw in water, 1/10; never rebuilt, 1/10; total: 1/2500; Babylon/Nineveh:never inhabited, 1/10, no Arab, 1/5; no shepherds, 1/2; no stone, 1/10;destruction, 1/2; total: 1/2000; Capernaum/Nazareth: destruction, 1/2; not,1/2; total: 1/4; p = 2.5 x 10-9

 

Totalprobability of good guess: 3 x 10-17

 

Conclusions:

 

            Fulfilledprophecy is strong evidence that not all religions/worldviews are equal.

 

            Infact, a series of prophecies about the end of the age and the second coming ofJesus appear even now to be in the process of being fulfilled, though this isstill difficult to be sure of as yet: return of Israel to its land, strongpressures for world government, threat of ecological disaster, famine,epidemics.

 

            Whatwill you do about it?

 

                        (1)Ignore evidence and do what you want, hoping that if there is a God you'll beOK anyway?

 

                        (2)Pick out a religion you like, hoping God will believe that you really weresincerely looking for the truth?

 

                        (3)Go where the evidence points, even if it means admitting that you've beenignoring God and rebelling against Him?

 

            Thegood news if you're willing to pick (3):

 

            Godis willing to forgive (and still do what is right & just) because He haspaid for our sins and provided the righteousness we lacked in the life anddeath of the God-man Jesus Christ; we just need to come to God in prayer andask that He forgive us and change us.

 

Bibliography;

 

S. H. Kellogg.  The Jews: Prediction and Fulfillment, 2nd ed. Anson K. Randolph, 1887.

Josh McDowell.  Evidence That Demands a Verdict. Campus Crusade, 1972.

John W. Montgomery, ed.  Evidence for Faith. Probe/Word, 1991.

Robert C. Newman, ed.  The Evidence of Prophecy. IBRI, 1988.

J. Barton Payne.  Encyclopedia of Biblical Prophecy. Harper and Row, 1973.

Bernard Ramm.  Protestant Christian Evidences. Moody Press, 1953.

Peter W. Stoner and Robert C.Newman.  Science Speaks, 4th ed. Moody Press, 1976.

John Urquhart.  The Wonders of Prophecy.  ChristianPublications, n.d.